screenshot

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely (In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?")

It would be comfortable if Trump negotiated everything, lifted the sanctions, and personally said that Crimea belongs to Russia — but that’s unlikely to happen (In response to the question: "Does Putin feel comfortable in this situation? Is he in a panic? Or is it a mix?")

Zelensky will cancel his decree, and Putin — if he wants to. He simply doesn’t want to. We must gradually begin to let go of the illusion of these negotiations and realize that, in reality, they’ve already fallen apart (On the potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — or between Zelensky and Putin personally — in the near future. And even if they do happen, they will lead to nothing)

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things (Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions)

An increase in military support for Ukraine — it’s already clear that this won’t happen. Trump won’t do it, even though such proposals have been discussed

Trump has found himself in a dead end... Technically, he cannot force Ukraine into a deal that suits Putin, because Ukraine won’t agree to it — and neither will Europe

This crazy idea of external governance in Ukraine is clearly completely unworkable

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war

Negotiations will undoubtedly take place; this seems obvious to me. I think we should expect them within days, any day now. I believe there will be a phone conversation. It will be interesting to observe how it is arranged. Most likely, it will be organized in such a way that Trump will call Putin

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know (Talking about Russia's economy)