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Predictions and promises monitor

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Mark Feygin

Lawyer, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
131
Verified
57
Came true
88%
Complex
40%
Confident
44%
Rating
7.19
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Deploying weapons in space, creating manned and unmanned space bases, and so on. Putting weapons into space is inevitable, unavoidable. This isn’t a science fiction novel; this is real life on Earth.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Iran will soon get this bomb with the help of North Korea and Moscow. I think they will acquire nuclear weapons unless Israel carries out preemptive strikes.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don’t believe in any organized protest, for the simple reason that I don’t see any political forces capable of it. There used to be, but not anymore... That’s why I don’t believe in any mass and organized protest now, under the conditions of war. Ukraine will not face major internal protests or political destabilization during the current war.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'm confident, and I predict that Putin will intervene and resolve the issue, and everything will collapse in an instant. We'll see a smiling Kerimov and Kadyrov, wearing expensive sunglasses, hugging and kissing, saying, "That's it, we've agreed, everything is fine. We get 30 percent, he gets 70 percent. We're respectable people."
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In Tajikistan, there will be a dynastic system. It will repeat what happened in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
Expected
#Tajikistan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Moscow does not want to participate in any peace summits and will not participate in the second summit; it will not participate, even as an observer. It will not participate.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

But still, it seems more realistic to me that, when considering the context of a nuclear response or an attempt at nuclear blackmail, it is more likely that they will conduct nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya... This is more likely. Why? Because the level of control over the situation there is much higher. This will have an effect on the West. None on Ukraine.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In this business, once everything is divided up, there won’t be any Bakalchuks left—that’s obvious too. Referring to Wildberries.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I predict that, in the end, Putin will step in as an arbitrator and somehow divide this business between the disputing parties. Wildberries.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Attempting to assassinate Donald Trump is an outrageous thing... they have arrested the shooter... it is clear that he will face severe responsibility, he will be convicted and, apparently, given a very long sentence.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In my opinion, it is unlikely that a forceful scenario can be avoided... The issue of Moldova will be resolved by force. I do not see a possibility for Moscow to voluntarily withdraw its contingent back to Russia... that is out of the question. Referring to Transnistria.
Expected
#Moldova #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Clearly, but it is unlikely that he will get it. Ryabkov is clearly aiming for Lavrov's position.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Most likely, Mongolia will be withdrawn from the International Criminal Court. I think this will happen, perhaps not all at once... and most likely, Mongolia will be excluded from the Rome Statute.
Expected
#Mongolia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

And my prediction is that Hungary will bend; it will concede. It will not leave either the European Union or NATO. On Hungary's pro-Putin behavior, that it is more beneficial for them to remain in the EU than to continue supporting Putin.
Expected
#Hungary #European Union #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The governor of the Belgorod region… he will definitely be removed, 100% Referring to Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe with a high degree of certainty that Durov will grant access to Telegram. While in custody, Durov will agree to cooperate with the French law enforcement system, and let's be frank, with the French means with the American and all the others
Expected
#Internet #Censorship #France #Russia #Durov #Telegram
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If such incredible steps were taken to admit Ukraine into NATO, the war would likely end much sooner rather than escalate to a new level. If Ukraine is accepted into NATO, the war will end, not intensify.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

She will never be a foreign agent. Ksenia Sobchak.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don't see any prospects for him in his new role. I don't see any political quality. Arestovich has no prospects in politics.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think negotiations are underway regarding the hostages... I believe that this will not be successful. Hamas will not release these people. They will not release them.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

All the recent structures that connected countries, like the CIS... all of this will fall apart CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This will never happen... they will not agree to anything of that sort. About the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #UN #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They will meet at the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Biden. I suspect that this will most likely end with mutual visits, first Xi Jinping to Washington, and then Biden to Beijing. This is my prediction, and I do not insist on it
Expected
#USA #China #G20
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that they will reach the point of confiscating frozen assets. I think this will happen in both Europe and America as well... I believe that large-scale confiscations may begin by the start of next year. Frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Economy #Europe #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Moscow will also prepare for an offensive. And most likely, with a high degree of probability, it will be in the north. The north of Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Ukraine, having endured these 8 months of hell, will never be demilitarized; that will never happen.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He wants some kind of comeback that will never happen. Medvedev will not become president of Russia again.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I will make a prediction that, most likely, the niqabs will not be banned. In the context of the discussions these days about banning niqabs in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I tend to think that they will ultimately imprison him. About Yevgeny Roizman.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will return, I am sure. Ivan Urgant will return to Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think humanity will most likely go down this path. Regarding the creation of a new organization instead of the UN, which will include not all countries of the world, but those that share certain Western values.
Expected
#UN
ru → en

Mark Feygin

By the way, I do not believe in it; it will never happen. Regarding General nuclear disarmament worldwide.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Independently, as a force, the military will not come to power. In Russia
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Even before the war, I believed that Putin's regime... the power in Russia would not change as a result of elections or peaceful protests.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think that most likely yes, this will happen, in my opinion. It's hard to say how quickly. Regarding the lifting of the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think this is unlikely. Regarding Russia attacking airports in Poland.
Expected
#Russia #Poland
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Only if Moscow itself initiates it... NATO will avoid it until the last moment. Answering the question: "What percentage do you give that a war between NATO and Russia is possible?" The prediction is interpreted in such a way that NATO will not attack Moscow first, only in response to Russia's actions.
Expected
#Russia #NATO
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As if there was never such a president as Nazarbayev. Tokayev will also be removed someday; do you think such a fate does not await him? It does.
Expected
#Kazakhstan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Undoubtedly, the CSTO will fall apart.
Expected
#CSTO
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Now there are no chances left; he can't die on his own now. About Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

By the way, I am convinced that they will join NATO... ultimately, this will come to pass. Serbia
Expected
#Serbia #NATO
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There will not be any kind of super-massive strike. Regarding the threats from Russia to strike at decision-making centers of Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There won't be a long, protracted war with Moscow... Everything will be resolved in the coming years. I'm not saying one year; I'm saying years—one, two, three. It will be settled soon, not in some long, drawn-out conflict on a distant horizon. The war in Ukraine will not last for decades and will be resolved in the next few years, within one to three years.
Expected December 31, 2027
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en