Predictions and promises monitor

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Mark Feygin

Lawyer, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
170
Verified
77
Came true
84%
Complex
38%
Confident
44%
6.96

Mark Feygin

Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? My prediction is no. My prediction is no. Why? Because then they would also lose Khark Island, the oil terminal, the refineries, and essentially their entire oil industry.
Expected August 14, 2025
#Iran #Oil
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'll make a prediction. I believe that Iran will not succeed in inflicting very serious damage on Israel — that’s my forecast. Yes, some missiles, Shaheds, and ballistic rockets may reach Israeli territory, possibly even some military sites, but they will not cause significant damage. In the current phase of the war between Israel and Iran.
Expected August 13, 2025
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this. There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky
ru → en

Mark Feygin

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Mark Feygin

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything. If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en