Predictions and promises monitor

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Sergei Markov

Political scientist, state and public figure (Russia)

Predictions
25
Verified
16
Came true
50%
Complex
56%
Confident
63%
Rating
4.88

Sergei Markov

Moldova. Sandu is likely to lose the election in the second round with a 90% probability. She is in shock and has been postponing her press appearance for many hours.
Did not come true November 4, 2024
#Moldova #Elections
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Military logic. Apparently, Selydove will soon be taken by the Russian army. I would assume that it will happen in about two weeks.
Almost came true October 30, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

In the event of the death of Iranian President Raisi, there will not be a major internal crisis in Iran. The real leader of Iran is not the president, but the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. There will simply be new presidential elections.
Completely came true August 20, 2024
#Iran
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Iran, elections. Second round. Pezeshkian received 44% in the first round and is considered a liberal. Jalili received 40% in the first round and is considered a conservative. However, the candidate who took third place with 13%, also a conservative, has already called for votes for Jalili. Therefore, the prediction is for Jalili. But still, the prediction is approximate.
Did not come true July 6, 2024
#Iran
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The elections to the European Parliament will be on June 9. The European People's Party, the party of the establishment, euro-bureaucracy, and oligarchy, will win again.
Completely came true June 9, 2024
#European Union
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov has been arrested. He was responsible for construction. Everyone is wondering—could this be a signal to Shoigu that he won't be in the next government after May 7? Calm down. He will be. Since the catastrophic 2022, Shoigu has created a new army that repelled the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023. And in 2024, it will be on the offensive. Shoigu has accomplished a managerial feat...
Did not come true May 12, 2024
#Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar
ru → en

Sergei Markov

I don't think Wagner will leave Bakhmut on May 10... I believe the threat from Prigozhin to withdraw Wagner from Bakhmut on May 10 will not materialize.
Completely came true May 11, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The moratorium on the death penalty has been lifted in the DPR. Currently, two British citizens and a Moroccan citizen have been sentenced to death... The British citizens are expected to be executed because having British citizenship is considered an aggravating factor. Britain is one of the main culprits responsible for the tens of thousands of deaths in Ukraine.
Did not come true September 21, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #United Kingdom
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The moratorium on the death penalty has been lifted in the DPR. Currently, two British citizens and a Moroccan citizen have been sentenced to death. It is most likely that the Moroccan citizen will be pardoned as a gesture towards Arab nations, who have not joined the sanctions against Russia.
Completely came true September 21, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Morocco
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Russian army tanks are already in Kharkiv. The anti-fascists in Kharkiv will take control of the entire city in the coming hours. By "anti-fascists," he means pro-Russian forces.
Did not come true May 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Mariupol will be "liberated" today. It is the main economic center of the Donbas, even more economically powerful than Donetsk. Of course, it should have been "liberated" back in 2014. Referring to the capture of Mariupol by Russian forces. Supporters of Russia's invasion of Ukraine use the term "liberation" to describe the occupation.
Partially came true May 20, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

A well-prepared and well-equipped Afghan army, trained and supplied by the Americans, mostly switched to the side of the enemies of the United States. The Ukrainian army will eventually do the same.
Did not come true March 1, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en