Predictions and promises monitor

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Sergei Markov

Political scientist, state and public figure (Russia)

Predictions
43
Verified
25
Came true
52%
Complex
64%
Confident
72%
5.08

Sergei Markov

The German Chancellor stated that Russia must pay 500 billion euros to Ukraine. And then Russia can ask for the 200 billion euros frozen in the EU to be returned to them. Hmm. By the way, in that case, they wouldn't give back the 200 billion euros for anything. They'd find something to fault.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #Germany #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The Danish authorities are in a complete panic. They’re trying to secretly reach out to Trump and ask him not to take Greenland. In exchange, they’re ready to give the U.S. everything in Greenland—any military bases, any concessions. I think Trump won’t take Greenland outright. He’ll take everything there while formally leaving Denmark’s flag flying.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Zelensky is submitting an application for Ukraine's entry into NATO. However, it won't be accepted because most NATO countries do not want to engage in a direct war with Russia.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO #Zelensky
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Russia currently controls 20.7% of Ukrainian territory. Before February 23, it was 7%. These calculations were made by Forbes. However, we disagree with them because they include Crimea in both the 7% and the 20.7%, and as everyone knows, Crimea is Russia. So, 20% under Russian control is still to come. And we foresee 30%, 40%, 50%, and even 60% in the future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The Pope is 69 years old. Therefore, it’s highly likely that he will remain Pope for 20–25 years. That’s a very long time for the modern world. A whole new era has begun in the Catholic Church.
Expected December 31, 2045
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The elite world is shaken by the death sentence given to the head of China’s main bank, the Bank of China, for bribery. All the heads of banks around the world are trembling at this news because they know they too could be sentenced for the same reason. And so could finance ministers. But don’t worry! Officially, it’s for bribery, but in reality, it’s because he was too friendly with America. And in two years, the death sentence will quietly be commuted to life imprisonment. In the meantime, he’ll be giving testimony against others in the Chinese elite who are eager to be too friendly with America.
Expected December 31, 2026
#China
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected November 8, 2025
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Turkey. 1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally. 2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down. 3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Turkey
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan.
Expected September 28, 2025
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Sergei Markov

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
Expected August 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive. It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive. If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins. Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future.
Expected July 29, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected July 15, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Currently, there are no female governors in Russia. This is after the resignation of Governor Komarova today. This is certainly a disgrace for such a modern, civilized country as Russia. I am sure that the leadership of Russia understands this, and we will see female governors in the near future. Gender equality is one of the main achievements of civilization.
Expected May 30, 2025
#Russia
ru → en