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Predictions and promises monitor

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Sergei Markov

Political scientist, state and public figure (Russia)

Predictions
33
Verified
21
Came true
52%
Complex
57%
Confident
67%
5.02

Sergei Markov

The Danish authorities are in a complete panic. They’re trying to secretly reach out to Trump and ask him not to take Greenland. In exchange, they’re ready to give the U.S. everything in Greenland—any military bases, any concessions. I think Trump won’t take Greenland outright. He’ll take everything there while formally leaving Denmark’s flag flying.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Zelensky is submitting an application for Ukraine's entry into NATO. However, it won't be accepted because most NATO countries do not want to engage in a direct war with Russia.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO #Zelensky
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Russia currently controls 20.7% of Ukrainian territory. Before February 23, it was 7%. These calculations were made by Forbes. However, we disagree with them because they include Crimea in both the 7% and the 20.7%, and as everyone knows, Crimea is Russia. So, 20% under Russian control is still to come. And we foresee 30%, 40%, 50%, and even 60% in the future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The elite world is shaken by the death sentence given to the head of China’s main bank, the Bank of China, for bribery. All the heads of banks around the world are trembling at this news because they know they too could be sentenced for the same reason. And so could finance ministers. But don’t worry! Officially, it’s for bribery, but in reality, it’s because he was too friendly with America. And in two years, the death sentence will quietly be commuted to life imprisonment. In the meantime, he’ll be giving testimony against others in the Chinese elite who are eager to be too friendly with America.
Expected December 31, 2026
#China
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Turkey. 1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally. 2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down. 3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them.
Expected September 30, 2025
#Turkey
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan.
Expected September 28, 2025
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Were you planning a summer trip to Anapa? And already considering canceling it? Cancel the cancellation! By summer, all of Anapa's beaches will be completely cleaned of oil residue. Enormous resources are being directed towards the cleanup. Thousands of volunteers—and some non-volunteers—are working. All the sand will be sifted. The cleanup will be personally overseen by the Minister of Natural Resources, Kozlov. All this so that millions of families with children can enjoy their summer vacation in Anapa!
Expected June 15, 2025
#Russia #Oil
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Currently, there are no female governors in Russia. This is after the resignation of Governor Komarova today. This is certainly a disgrace for such a modern, civilized country as Russia. I am sure that the leadership of Russia understands this, and we will see female governors in the near future. Gender equality is one of the main achievements of civilization.
Expected May 30, 2025
#Russia
ru → en