Predictions and promises monitor

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Sergei Markov

Political scientist, state and public figure (Russia)

Predictions
43
Verified
25
Came true
52%
Complex
64%
Confident
72%
5.08

Sergei Markov

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
Expected August 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive. It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive. If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins. Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future.
Expected July 29, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected July 15, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Currently, there are no female governors in Russia. This is after the resignation of Governor Komarova today. This is certainly a disgrace for such a modern, civilized country as Russia. I am sure that the leadership of Russia understands this, and we will see female governors in the near future. Gender equality is one of the main achievements of civilization.
Expected May 30, 2025
#Russia
ru → en