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As for Crimea, in my opinion, after 11 years of occupation, it is already clear that Crimea will never be internationally recognized as Russian territory. It will never happen. The only thing Russia can count on is the occasional whims of individual leaders.
#Ukraine #Russia

Technically, it will end with the defeat of Hamas.
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel

Putin will get a breather, will resume and accumulate resources... and he will attack again. Putin will attack Ukraine again if a ceasefire is declared.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I am absolutely sure that China will not supply weapons. To Russia.
#Russia #China #War in Ukraine

In the long term, oil will, of course, decline. That’s an obvious trend. No more $100 per barrel, unless there are major wars, but even then it would be short-lived. We will no longer see oil steadily returning to $100 per barrel.
#Oil #Economy

The result will be the nuclearization of the Middle East... We should expect a nuclear Iran, and then — or perhaps even before that — a nuclear Saudi Arabia, as a consequence of today’s strikes.
#Iran #Saudi Arabia #Nuclear weapons

The electric vehicle revolution is continuing at a very rapid pace. Currently, the share of electric car sales in total car sales worldwide is around 20%, and it’s growing very quickly. For example, in the first quarter of this year, global electric car sales increased by almost a third compared to last year. This growth is primarily driven by China, where more electric cars are now sold than internal combustion engine cars. This shift is already irreversible. In a few years, electric vehicles will largely replace gasoline engines, especially in China and Europe. The United States is lagging behind in electrification.
#Science and technology #Europe #China #USA

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
#USA #Trump

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA

In Serbia, we can see that the wave of public discontent over some sort of retrospective of different years is growing, and in the end, it will bring Vučić down. I became 100% convinced of that when I saw the protests.
#Serbia

France was one of the most friendly Western powers toward Russia as a whole, as a phenomenon. Now, in the French political class, sentiments are at their strongest that Russia is a long-term strategic threat. These sentiments will outlast Emmanuel Macron, who has two years left to lead France. They will 100% outlast him.
#France #Russia

One thing Trump definitely won’t do is lift the sanctions on Russian LNG, and those sanctions are very effective.
#Russia #USA #Trump #Economy of Russia #Economy

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
#USA #Trump #Economy

SpaceX runs entirely on government money, and the Starships keep crashing — crashing again and again. In the foreseeable future, mark my words, the Starship rocket cannot be certified for human flights because he simply cannot make it safe.
#USA #Science and technology #Space

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
#USA #Economy #Trump

I usually don’t give investment advice, but just take a look at the stocks of European defense companies—they will definitely keep growing, 100%.
#Europe #Economy

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia

The ruble has settled above 100 per dollar, and I believe it will continue to weaken. Much will depend on the dynamics in the coming weeks.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

The price of oil will not rise. It will most likely decrease due to the obvious oversupply. This is because OPEC countries are eager to increase production and move beyond output quotas. If Trump has any influence here, it’s indirect.
#Oil #Economy

I think that eventually, Nabiullina will be dismissed after some time. Referring to Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia.
#Russia

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

We bet with Michael $100 that military spending will increase by no less than 2 trillion rubles in 2025.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

I believe that the upcoming year 2025 will be incredibly difficult for Putin. And at the current scale, he will not be able to continue the war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

And that was the key threat — that if Iran were attacked, it would block the Strait of Hormuz, halting all oil traffic, causing an oil shortage, and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Right now, this scenario is not unfolding... There is no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz.
#Iran

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes.
#Israel #Iran

I believe that Iran will not fall like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Assad in Syria, but will withstand this blow, consolidate, and be able to regenerate its capabilities.
#Iran

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending. Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill)
#USA

As for the oil price, since there is no scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I think the price isn’t under much threat — it will be a bit nervous, but then it will settle down.
#Oil #Economy

Translation: The war between India and Pakistan — do you think it will have a strong impact on the global economy? Well, as things are going, I would venture to predict that they will exchange some strikes and won’t continue beyond that, because for both of them, an all-out war with each other would have colossal and devastating consequences.
#India #Pakistan

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine