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I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia

The ruble has settled above 100 per dollar, and I believe it will continue to weaken. Much will depend on the dynamics in the coming weeks.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

The price of oil will not rise. It will most likely decrease due to the obvious oversupply. This is because OPEC countries are eager to increase production and move beyond output quotas. If Trump has any influence here, it’s indirect.
#Oil #Economy

I think that eventually, Nabiullina will be dismissed after some time. Referring to Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia.
#Russia

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

We bet with Michael $100 that military spending will increase by no less than 2 trillion rubles in 2025.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

I believe that the upcoming year 2025 will be incredibly difficult for Putin. And at the current scale, he will not be able to continue the war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

And that was the key threat — that if Iran were attacked, it would block the Strait of Hormuz, halting all oil traffic, causing an oil shortage, and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Right now, this scenario is not unfolding... There is no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz.
#Iran

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes.
#Israel #Iran

I believe that Iran will not fall like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Assad in Syria, but will withstand this blow, consolidate, and be able to regenerate its capabilities.
#Iran

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I have a feeling they will leave it (unchanged)... There is a chance that they might lower it slightly, but looking at past experience, I lean towards rigidity, I could be wrong on Friday, but my forecast is that they will leave it (unchanged). Key rate
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

It's safe to say that there will definitely be some kind of tax increase. It will be announced, it's a matter of the next few days. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Putin's entire demeanor shows he's not going to change his approach. Will Trump actually follow through on his threats or not? I remain in the camp of strong skeptics, believing it's most likely no. This will be limited to public relations noise. Referring to Trump's so-called ultimatum to Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine