Predictions and promises monitor

| About
en | ru | Author Ranking

Andrey Piontkovsky

Political expert, mathematician (Russia)

Predictions
55
Verified
36
Came true
53%
Complex
75%
Confident
75%
5.26

Andrey Piontkovsky

When the offensive fails—he hasn’t taken either Kramatorsk or Sloviansk, and never will—the Coalition of Will, of which Ukraine is a member, will face the question: what to do next? The Russian army will never take Sloviansk or Kramatorsk.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

These stupid restrictions... so that they don't strike Russian territory with their long-range missiles... I am sure that all restrictions will be lifted. Restrictions for Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We will see him... Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma... and But will follow the same path. Viktor Bout will become a member of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Both Skabeeva and Simonyansha will definitely be sent, if not to The Hague, then to Mariupol. Russian TV hosts Olga Skabeeva and Margarita Simonyan will be tried.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Ukraine will never agree to this. To capitulation due to pressure from partners over the threat of the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

If the defeat in the midterm elections is crushing, then he won’t make it to the end of the term. In response to the question: "In your opinion, will Trump serve out his full term?"
Expected December 31, 2029
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en