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I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Creating scientific potential and establishing strong universities is an extremely costly endeavor. Because of this, the Global South will never dominate in technology. It will always be purchasing technology... The world is now divided into the Global North, which generates technology and reaps significant profits from it, and the Global South, which consumes this technology and pays for its use, as it cannot produce equivalents itself.

I don’t think that even after Putin’s physical death there will be any fundamental transformation of the regime in Russia. No, it won’t happen. Similar kinds of people will take over.
#Russia

There will be wars... As I’ve already mentioned, since we’re not seeing any technological progress, it means we’re at the lower part of the so-called Kondratiev curve, the Kondratiev cycle. And in this phase, wars always increase. There’s no point in developing the economy, no economic gains, and frustrated nations start fighting each other out of anger and hopelessness. So we are in a period where, unfortunately, I have to tell you, the number of wars will only keep growing.

The situation with the real estate market is quite frightening. We are likely facing a drop in prices here.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

Events in the Middle East can certainly impact the market, and in the short term, they will likely have an effect, but probably not for very long and not in a very severe way. Israel's war against Hamas may affect oil prices, but only for a short period and not significantly.
#Oil #Economy #Israel-Hamas war

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy