Predictions and promises monitor

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Yuri Felshtinsky

Historian (USA, Russia)

Predictions
20
Verified
5
Came true
40%
Complex
80%
Confident
60%
Rating
4.85

Yuri Felshtinsky

Whoever comes to power in Russia after Putin will still be a temporary ruler and will not stay in power for long, maybe a year or two.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

No Ukrainian politician, starting with Zelensky, will be able to present the question of peace negotiations with Russia to their people without the condition of recognizing the borders of 1991
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Everyone is now startled by the announcement that Poland is suspending military aid to Ukraine. But I guarantee you that Poland will not stop military assistance to Ukraine. Because Poland's military aid to Ukraine is primarily in Poland's interest, and this is well understood in Poland.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Poland #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

When military actions will be transferred to the territory of Belarus, and they will be transferred there at some point
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

The moment Kadyrov leaves, the Chechen Republic will certainly raise the issue of its independence.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from the thought that he will deliver this strike from the territory of the Russian Federation. Nuclear strike.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

The victory may be far off. However, I do not think we are talking about years. I do not see a scenario stretched over years, like the Soviet-Afghan war. Until Ukraine's victory.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en