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Predictions and promises monitor

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Ian Matveev

Military expert (Russia)

Predictions
22
Verified
10
Came true
60%
Complex
60%
Confident
30%
5.9

Ian Matveev

I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

It’s unlikely that Chasiv Yar will be captured within the next week, but it can no longer be said with certainty that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the city. After the turning point a couple of weeks ago, it became clear that Chasiv Yar will also be abandoned—sooner or later, but inevitably.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Of course, it will. Just not now and not through military action anymore. At this point, the war is unlikely to shift in such a way that Crimea can be reclaimed militarily. But through diplomacy, Ukraine will undoubtedly regain it sooner or later. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine get Crimea back?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Will Sudzha hold out? Naturally, some part of the Ukrainian bridgehead might shrink, but I think they’ve set a goal to hold on right up until Trump, until January 20, and part of the bridgehead will definitely hold.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think if it happens, it will be next year. They haven’t reached Pokrovsk yet. In response to the question: "When do you think the assault on Pokrovsk will take place?"
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think, of course, they will not be deployed. Sarmat missiles on combat duty in 2023 in Russia
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

So, Volgograd will remain Volgograd. There will be no renaming to Stalingrad
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think it will be some kind of bombing of some city. Possibly Dnipro... Putin will simply send cruise missiles to peaceful Ukrainian cities... I don't think it will be a strike on Kyiv, although there are those Iranian drones... there is a theoretical possibility that they could reach Kyiv... it will definitely be just terror against peaceful Ukrainian cities. Russia's response to the explosion of the Crimean Bridge.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I believe that we will definitely see at least one significant attempt; we probably have another two months, maybe even three... because this is a very sensitive target for them, the Donetsk region. About Russia's offensive in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Therefore, I still do not believe in these referendums; they are more likely just being talked about. Talking about the so-called referendums on the accession of Ukrainian regions to Russia.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en