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150 certainly won’t happen. I think not at any time. In response to the questions: "Will the ruble keep declining, and could we possibly see 150 in the New Year? Over what time period?"
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And we will definitely see 200 rubles per dollar, 300 rubles per dollar... even in the legal market.
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In the long run, the dollar will rise. I keep saying this. The dollar and the euro will rise. In relation to the ruble.
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I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
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So far, I don't see any significant displacement of the dollar from its status as the world's primary reserve currency.
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I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
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There will be no 100 rubles to the dollar in Russia in a year. The exchange rate will be much worse.
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I think by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, it will be somewhere around 105-110. The dollar will be 105-110 rubles.
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The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
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We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
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This year, I don't think the dollar exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles.
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As for the exchange rate, I would say we will confidently break through 100 this year, likely around November. By the end of 2024, the exchange rate will be above 100 rubles per dollar.
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