Predictions and promises monitor

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Ivan Yakovina

Journalist (Russia, Ukraine)

Predictions
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Ivan Yakovina

I said from the very beginning that I think the operation will end with, well, basically a genocide of all those Arabs, and there will be none of them left at all—either they’ll be driven out or the entire population of Gaza will be killed off, and Israel will annex this territory. I think, in the end, that’s what will happen. In response to the question: "How do you think Israel’s operation in Gaza will end?"
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

They are ready to capitulate if it means avoiding nuclear war. For them, human life is more important than the idea of victory. I think if it comes down to a choice between nuclear war or surrender, they will choose surrender. Referring to Europe if Putin were to deploy troops, for example, in Lithuania.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Europe
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think this permission will most likely be granted, but only after the elections. In response to the question: "Why does the U.S. prohibit strikes deep into Russia?" Referring to allowing Ukraine to use long-range American weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

He will leave when he dies, or when he is overthrown. But I think he is more likely to die than be overthrown. In response to the question: "When will Lukashenko step down?"
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

It would be beneficial for the Americans if a pro-American force came to power in Russia, so that together they could pressure and contain China. Establishing a pro-American regime in Russia would be a reasonable goal for the Americans. I believe that, sooner or later, they will achieve this.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, I would bet that the strike on Feodosia is just a warm-up, a training exercise, and that the main blow will target the oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. Most likely, this strike will happen after the U.S. presidential elections, at the beginning of November, exactly one month from now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

We need to prepare for the possibility that in winter, Russia will likely launch a large-scale infantry offensive with significant forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The middle class won’t go to war en masse, even for money… They’ll have to draft people by force. That’s why I think by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, at least half a million Russian men will be conscripted into the army. They'll try to draft them, though some will flee and some will hide, but overall, I think they’ll get the job done. Russia has set up a special electronic system and border control system; they’ve prepared thoroughly for a new wave of mobilization.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Keeping in mind the military operations that Russia has conducted or attempted in the past, their intentions are generally clear; there is nothing particularly complicated about it, and I think it is quite obvious. Kupiansk is now becoming a city of key importance. I believe that, most likely, we should expect in the coming months, probably when it gets colder, and the autumn rains come to an end, a significant offensive on Kupiansk.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I am confident that at the current pace of development of this technology, within six months at most, the entire front line will generally be closed to Russian reconnaissance drones. They will not be able to fly unpunished in the air, especially over Ukrainian positions. Perhaps they will have the opportunity to fly somewhere over their territory under the protection of their air defense, somewhere far from Ukrainian intercepting drones.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en