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There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
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The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
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In the long term, of course, the ruble is weakening—there’s no doubt about it.
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150 certainly won’t happen. I think not at any time. In response to the questions: "Will the ruble keep declining, and could we possibly see 150 in the New Year? Over what time period?"
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I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
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We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
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This year, I don't think the dollar exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles.
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I think by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, it will be somewhere around 105-110. The dollar will be 105-110 rubles.
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As for the exchange rate, I would say we will confidently break through 100 this year, likely around November. By the end of 2024, the exchange rate will be above 100 rubles per dollar.
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There will be no 100 rubles to the dollar in Russia in a year. The exchange rate will be much worse.
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97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
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I think it will be 14 rubles per yuan in the fall.
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In the long run, the dollar will rise. I keep saying this. The dollar and the euro will rise. In relation to the ruble.
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September, October, November... Most likely, they will keep it in the range of 93-97. The exchange rate of the dollar in Russia.
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I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
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Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
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I believe that the euro will trade in February in the range of 72-75 rubles, closer to its lower boundary.
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Since we saw at the end of last year that the U.S. economy did not fall into crisis, while the Russian economy slightly slowed down in its adaptive and positive trends, the ruble has depreciated a bit against the dollar and is now, at the end of January, around 67-68 rubles. As I do not see any prerequisites for significant changes in either the Russian economy or the U.S. in February, it seems that this is the rate to expect in the coming month. Of course, fluctuations around this figure are possible, and they will be significant, as there is some uncertainty in the external economic situation. But the most important thing is that the Central Bank of Russia is not intervening in the exchange rate formation mechanism and is not smoothing out excessively sharp peaks in fluctuations. As a result, the ruble will fluctuate around the 67-68 rubles per dollar mark, with noticeable variations of about one ruble in either direction. But on average, this is the rate we can expect throughout February.
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But in any case, I don't think the Central Bank will let it go beyond 85-90 rubles. The exchange rate of the dollar in rubles in 2023.
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I think they will implement the digital ruble for transactions among so-called friendly countries
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Thus, they will try to bring it to an average of 71-74... but physically, the rate of 67-69 is the maximum they can achieve by December... this is assuming they don't 'fool around like complete idiots.' About the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar.
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And we will definitely see 200 rubles per dollar, 300 rubles per dollar... even in the legal market.
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