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Predictions and promises monitor

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Ivan Yakovina

Journalist (Russia, Ukraine)

Predictions
23
Verified
5
Came true
20%
Complex
80%
Confident
20%
4.35

Ivan Yakovina

I am sure that sooner or later, some sort of Prigozhin analogue will emerge in the Russian army, I have almost no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I said from the very beginning that I think the operation will end with, well, basically a genocide of all those Arabs, and there will be none of them left at all—either they’ll be driven out or the entire population of Gaza will be killed off, and Israel will annex this territory. I think, in the end, that’s what will happen. In response to the question: "How do you think Israel’s operation in Gaza will end?"
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

They are ready to capitulate if it means avoiding nuclear war. For them, human life is more important than the idea of victory. I think if it comes down to a choice between nuclear war or surrender, they will choose surrender. Referring to Europe if Putin were to deploy troops, for example, in Lithuania.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Europe
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

He will leave when he dies, or when he is overthrown. But I think he is more likely to die than be overthrown. In response to the question: "When will Lukashenko step down?"
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

It would be beneficial for the Americans if a pro-American force came to power in Russia, so that together they could pressure and contain China. Establishing a pro-American regime in Russia would be a reasonable goal for the Americans. I believe that, sooner or later, they will achieve this.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The situation is gradually moving toward a scenario where, in 2025, if the war does not end, a very serious battle for air superiority will likely begin in the skies over Ukraine and, most likely, over Russia.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I speculate on what the next move by the United States might be: closing the Danish Straits, through which about 30-40% of Russia's oil and gas exports pass.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA #Denmark #Russia #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

People’s bank deposits will simply be seized. They’ll be frozen or converted into bonds. They’ll call it a patriotic war loan for 20 years. In Russia in 2025.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I am confident that at the current pace of development of this technology, within six months at most, the entire front line will generally be closed to Russian reconnaissance drones. They will not be able to fly unpunished in the air, especially over Ukrainian positions. Perhaps they will have the opportunity to fly somewhere over their territory under the protection of their air defense, somewhere far from Ukrainian intercepting drones.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

We need to prepare for the possibility that in winter, Russia will likely launch a large-scale infantry offensive with significant forces.
Expected April 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en