Predictions and promises monitor

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Ivan Yakovina

Journalist (Russia, Ukraine)

Predictions
25
Verified
8
Came true
25%
Complex
88%
Confident
25%
4.19

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
Did not come true May 16, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I am confident that at the current pace of development of this technology, within six months at most, the entire front line will generally be closed to Russian reconnaissance drones. They will not be able to fly unpunished in the air, especially over Ukrainian positions. Perhaps they will have the opportunity to fly somewhere over their territory under the protection of their air defense, somewhere far from Ukrainian intercepting drones.
Partially came true May 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

We need to prepare for the possibility that in winter, Russia will likely launch a large-scale infantry offensive with significant forces.
Did not come true April 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

If negotiations do not begin and no ceasefire is reached, another so-called partial mobilization—completely free of charge—will be announced in Russia in March.
Cannot be verified March 31, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The middle class won’t go to war en masse, even for money… They’ll have to draft people by force. That’s why I think by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, at least half a million Russian men will be conscripted into the army. They'll try to draft them, though some will flee and some will hide, but overall, I think they’ll get the job done. Russia has set up a special electronic system and border control system; they’ve prepared thoroughly for a new wave of mobilization.
Did not come true February 28, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think Trump could very well win this election; it’s quite realistic. However, I don’t believe he will actually become president. I don’t know what will happen, but something will. I am sure he won’t become president. Of course, I could be wrong.
Did not come true January 20, 2025
#2024 United States presidential election #Trump #Elections #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, I would bet that the strike on Feodosia is just a warm-up, a training exercise, and that the main blow will target the oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. Most likely, this strike will happen after the U.S. presidential elections, at the beginning of November, exactly one month from now.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Keeping in mind the military operations that Russia has conducted or attempted in the past, their intentions are generally clear; there is nothing particularly complicated about it, and I think it is quite obvious. Kupiansk is now becoming a city of key importance. I believe that, most likely, we should expect in the coming months, probably when it gets colder, and the autumn rains come to an end, a significant offensive on Kupiansk.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think this permission will most likely be granted, but only after the elections. In response to the question: "Why does the U.S. prohibit strikes deep into Russia?" Referring to allowing Ukraine to use long-range American weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory.
Completely came true November 21, 2024
#Ukraine #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en