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Predictions and promises monitor

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Ivan Yakovina

Journalist (Russia, Ukraine)

Predictions
23
Verified
5
Came true
20%
Complex
80%
Confident
20%
4.35

Ivan Yakovina

If negotiations do not begin and no ceasefire is reached, another so-called partial mobilization—completely free of charge—will be announced in Russia in March.
Cannot be verified March 31, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The middle class won’t go to war en masse, even for money… They’ll have to draft people by force. That’s why I think by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, at least half a million Russian men will be conscripted into the army. They'll try to draft them, though some will flee and some will hide, but overall, I think they’ll get the job done. Russia has set up a special electronic system and border control system; they’ve prepared thoroughly for a new wave of mobilization.
Did not come true February 28, 2025
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think Trump could very well win this election; it’s quite realistic. However, I don’t believe he will actually become president. I don’t know what will happen, but something will. I am sure he won’t become president. Of course, I could be wrong.
Did not come true January 20, 2025
#2024 United States presidential election #Trump #Elections #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, I would bet that the strike on Feodosia is just a warm-up, a training exercise, and that the main blow will target the oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. Most likely, this strike will happen after the U.S. presidential elections, at the beginning of November, exactly one month from now.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Keeping in mind the military operations that Russia has conducted or attempted in the past, their intentions are generally clear; there is nothing particularly complicated about it, and I think it is quite obvious. Kupiansk is now becoming a city of key importance. I believe that, most likely, we should expect in the coming months, probably when it gets colder, and the autumn rains come to an end, a significant offensive on Kupiansk.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think this permission will most likely be granted, but only after the elections. In response to the question: "Why does the U.S. prohibit strikes deep into Russia?" Referring to allowing Ukraine to use long-range American weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory.
Completely came true November 21, 2024
#Ukraine #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en