Predictions and promises monitor

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Michael Sheitelman

Political technologist, blogger (Israel, Ukraine)

Predictions
49
Verified
16
Came true
69%
Complex
56%
Confident
25%
5.79

Michael Sheitelman

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
Completely came true June 30, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Completely came true May 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
Completely came true May 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Now we might also be expecting Korean soldiers. Because we’ve already taken out 6 officers. And the South Korean Minister of Defense said that North Korea is planning to send its troops. I don't believe it. My prediction: I don't think any serious Korean forces will appear on the front from the Russian side. We might take out another 5 officers, but if we're talking about 10,000 troops — I don't believe it.
Partially came true May 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #North Korea
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

In any case, Alternative for Germany, according to my forecast, will gain a maximum of 22%. That’s how it seems to me, though I could be wrong.
Completely came true February 24, 2025
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

With a very high probability—though I can't say 100%—we are likely to see an attempted revolution in Georgia. Following the elections on October 26, 2024.
Partially came true January 31, 2025
#Georgia #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Here’s my prediction: one of these three figures—Orbán, Fico, or Elon Musk—will definitely make a statement in support of Putin within the next 24 hours or so. Not directly in support of Putin, but something along the lines of how we urgently need to negotiate with him now because look how formidable he is.
Almost came true November 22, 2024
#Putin
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

We have been discussing for several days, even a couple of weeks, whether we will be given permission to strike at the launch points of Russian aircraft, that is, airfields, possibly the launch points of ballistic missiles, meaning permission to strike deep into Russia with American, British, and French weapons... September 11, and it seems that everything will work out for us. Most likely, Ukraine will be given permission to strike deep into Russian territory with Western weapons.
Completely came true November 21, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Most likely, with Kamala Harris, though this is my very subjective opinion, things will be slightly better than with Biden. That is, if Kamala Harris becomes president, our life in Ukraine and our war will become just a bit easier than under Biden. We’ll receive a little more. She will be slightly more aggressive toward the Russian Federation, both diplomatically and in other areas.
Cannot be verified November 6, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #KamalaHarris
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Before the elections—before November 5th—we need more than just permission to hit some distant targets… By November 5th, when the U.S. elections take place, we need not just permission, but we need to hit something big, spectacularly, 2-3 times, to make some major impactful strikes… That’s just my prediction. By November 5th, Ukraine will carry out significant strikes on Russian territory using Western long-range weapons.
Did not come true November 5, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I would assume that most likely the Georgian Dream will lose the elections, and the opposition will win. In the parliamentary elections in Georgia on October 26, 2024.
Did not come true October 26, 2024
#Georgia #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

As of today, it's known that the Ramstein meeting on the 19th won't take place... It will be limited to a meeting between Biden, Scholz, and Steinmeier. However, Zelensky might unexpectedly show up there. For some reason, I believe that on the 19th we will see a meeting between Biden and Zelensky. It will likely take place in Germany. Everything we were supposed to see at Ramstein, we will probably see there instead.
Did not come true October 25, 2024
#Zelensky #Biden #Germany #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

If they are recognized as a terrorist organization, and it seems to be heading that way. Wagner Group.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Most likely, victory will look like I said - the flight of the Russians. Answer to the question: 'What could the liberation of Kherson look like?'
Completely came true November 11, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en