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It’s unlikely that Chasiv Yar will be captured within the next week, but it can no longer be said with certainty that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the city. After the turning point a couple of weeks ago, it became clear that Chasiv Yar will also be abandoned—sooner or later, but inevitably.
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Of course, it will. Just not now and not through military action anymore. At this point, the war is unlikely to shift in such a way that Crimea can be reclaimed militarily. But through diplomacy, Ukraine will undoubtedly regain it sooner or later. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine get Crimea back?"
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Probably not; a nuclear strike is not anticipated. Russia will not use nuclear weapons.
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Regarding Poland, it is most likely a one-time situation and it is unlikely to happen again. The incident with the missile falling on Polish territory.
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Of course. Agreed with the statement that the war in Ukraine will not last for 20 years.
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It’s obvious that the war won’t last another 14 years. The war in Ukraine.
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As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
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I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
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And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
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I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
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In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
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The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
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I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
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But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
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There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
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