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In terms of probability, I would assess it as low. Because the involvement of Russia’s regions in Russian affairs is very high — most likely, no one will want to separate, in my opinion. The republics of the Caucasus — maybe; their probability is somewhat higher. As for Tatarstan, the probability is zero. In response to the question: "What do you think about the possibility of national republics breaking away from the Russian Federation after the end of the Putin regime? How likely do you think that is?"
#Russia

If we’re talking about European countries, they abide by international law — unlike Putin. Therefore, of course, no one is going to attack Kaliningrad.
#Russia #Europe

It’s unlikely that Chasiv Yar will be captured within the next week, but it can no longer be said with certainty that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the city. After the turning point a couple of weeks ago, it became clear that Chasiv Yar will also be abandoned—sooner or later, but inevitably.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Of course, it will. Just not now and not through military action anymore. At this point, the war is unlikely to shift in such a way that Crimea can be reclaimed militarily. But through diplomacy, Ukraine will undoubtedly regain it sooner or later. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine get Crimea back?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Probably not; a nuclear strike is not anticipated. Russia will not use nuclear weapons.
#Nuclear weapons #Putin #War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Regarding Poland, it is most likely a one-time situation and it is unlikely to happen again. The incident with the missile falling on Polish territory.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Poland

Of course. Agreed with the statement that the war in Ukraine will not last for 20 years.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s obvious that the war won’t last another 14 years. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, he won’t advance. In response to the question: "Will Putin reach Zaporizhzhia this year? What's your forecast?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
#Trump #USA #Iran

The capture of Sumy this summer, or even an assault on Sumy, definitely won't happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia