Predictions and promises monitor

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Ian Matveev

Military expert (Russia)

Predictions
44
Verified
16
Came true
69%
Complex
63%
Confident
38%
6.31

Ian Matveev

I think, more likely yes. Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine)
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected September 19, 2025
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Ian Matveev

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free.
Expected August 3, 2025
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en