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Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
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And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it.
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As of now, the way we see it, we won’t even reach a hundred by mid-summer. The ruble-to-dollar rate won’t reach 100 rubles per dollar by mid-summer.
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