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Predictions and promises monitor

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Ruslan Leviev

Founder of Conflict Intelligence Team (Russia)

Predictions
63
Verified
38
Came true
92%
Complex
55%
Confident
37%
Rating
7.64
All Expected Expected soon New results

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that they will be able to capture Pokrovsk by November. That would be too optimistic for the Russian army.
Completely came true November 1, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025? Uglidar will clearly not be held... I am making such cautious subjective predictions. Ukraine will not be able to retain Uglidar.
Completely came true October 2, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Of course. Undoubtedly. I am sure that such attacks will happen again. They may use different types of drones or missiles... In this regard, Russia is vulnerable, and it is possible to strike military facilities. Answer to the question: 'Can we expect to see such attacks in the near future?' (Drone attacks on military facilities in Russia, similar to the attack on the Engels airfield)
Completely came true August 18, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that nothing will come of it. Commenting on the proposal by the Estonian Foreign Minister to ban the issuance of Schengen visas to Russians at the EU level
Completely came true July 27, 2024
#European Union #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

And most likely, the shelling of Kharkiv will certainly not stop. About the shelling from Russia after the liberation of the main part of Kharkiv Oblast by Ukrainian forces
Completely came true May 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I do not expect that in the next month and a half, suddenly, the Russian side will stop the attacks due to the fact that the losses are too high. Attacks on Avdiivka.
Completely came true March 1, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Considering all these remarks, I do not expect any other large-scale deliveries this year... the task of reaching Melitopol this year is unachievable, given all the difficulties. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true December 31, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Probably, in April-May, I would expect less from the Ukrainian side regarding any large-scale counteroffensive.
Completely came true June 10, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Bakhmut itself is a large area. It won't be easy to capture it quickly. Therefore, I think we will be talking about Bakhmut for a long time, likely in the coming weeks
Completely came true May 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is unlikely that it will be possible to cut off electricity entirely in Ukraine, that is, to arrange a blackout.
Completely came true April 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am absolutely sure that there will definitely be a second wave, maybe not in January, maybe later. The second wave of mobilization in Russia.
Did not come true April 30, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I also don't think that Shoigu will be punished in any way for the failure with the Crimean Bridge
Completely came true February 8, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I don't think that if the Kherson region is liberated, they will immediately go for Crimea. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true February 1, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I haven't seen any objective factors supporting this version... it sounds quite doubtful. That Russia will leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the near future.
Completely came true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I think... they will clearly provide new air defense systems... but this will not allow for 100% coverage of the sky. Allies will provide air defense to Ukraine after the massive shelling of Ukraine on October 10.
Completely came true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It can be assumed that if the Antonivskyi Bridge is blown up and a threat is created to Nova Kakhovka, then perhaps the Russian forces will decide to withdraw from Kherson. But so far, we do not see any prerequisites for this. They will try to hold their position in Kherson.
Completely came true November 11, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, they will end up not completing anything and will have to use some kind of ferry crossing. About the restoration of the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro by the Russian occupation forces.
Completely came true November 10, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

One should not expect that Kherson will be liberated within a week or two or three. Most likely, it will be a lengthy process
Completely came true November 10, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that at this point, Ukrainian forces will not advance further; they will not move into the Luhansk region. Further than the Oskol River.
Completely came true October 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is likely that martial law will be introduced because of this... it can be declared in certain regions.
Completely came true October 19, 2022
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia will be able to fight for a month and a half to two months; it will not withstand heavy fighting for longer... then partial mobilization will be required.
Completely came true September 21, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

If those HIMARS that were promised actually start to be provided, then I think that in a month we will see a serious change in the situation.
Completely came true September 15, 2022
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I don't think they will now force the Dnieper to the left bank. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true May 31, 2022
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

But for now, there is no such danger. We do not see signs that mobilization is being prepared. Within a month. In Russia.
Completely came true May 25, 2022
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Today, Putin announced that we are canceling the assault on Azovstal. But naturally, the gunfire will not stop in any way. We are absolutely certain of this... bombs will continue to be dropped on Azovstal... there will be shelling from a distance.
Completely came true May 20, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is clear that nothing like that will happen. Talking about the Easter truce.
Completely came true April 25, 2022
#War in Ukraine
ru → en