Predictions and promises monitor

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Ruslan Leviev

Founder of Conflict Intelligence Team (Russia)

Predictions
63
Verified
38
Came true
92%
Complex
55%
Confident
37%
Rating
7.64

Ruslan Leviev

For now, these prospects are still elusive; they are more likely to be relevant in the post-war period. Not during a time when the war is frozen, but when it is fully over and all territorial disputes are resolved. Until that point, Ukraine's entry into NATO is clearly not going to happen.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear that the Sarmat missile won’t be used in the current war in any way. It’s more about boosting the prestige of the Russian army, specifically Putin. Putin used to love threatening with these Sarmats, showing cartoons of them hitting Florida with their missiles. And now we’re seeing these technical problems, with the missiles blowing up again and again.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear to me that, even though the issue with the aid legislation in America and Europe has been resolved, at some point Chasiv Yar will be captured. When that will happen is hard to predict. By Russian forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am confident that in order for Ukraine to fully join the European Union, it will have to ratify the Rome Statute without any reservations. As long as this reservation remains, Ukraine will not find itself in the European Union.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

No, it will not... We are talking about lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Let's assume all restrictions have been lifted and the necessary number of ATACMS have been supplied. They will start striking airfields, ammunition depots, logistics, and railway bridges. This will have an effect, but it will not be a turning point. Answer to the question: "If the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike deep into Russia, will this be a turning point in the war?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I find this absolutely impossible... What would be the point of entering the Kursk and Belgorod regions to occupy something there? If a mechanized offensive were to begin on Russian territory, the question of further support from Europe arises... Europe and America do not want to see ground combat on Russian territory. Response to the remark: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive may include entering the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Attacks on Lgov, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant... on Kurchatov... in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Clearly, this will not happen. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not go to Lgov, Kurchatov, and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We do not expect that Ukrainian drones will ever start attacking targets in Moscow... clearly, they will not be able to kill anyone from the high-ranking leadership of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, the Taurus missiles that can fly 500 km, if we see them at all, will not be anytime soon. These missiles are unlikely to be delivered to Ukraine anytime soon, if they are delivered at all.
Expected
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

As soon as the Putin regime truly collapses... I think there will be a domino effect, yes, at the very least, Lukashenko's regime will completely fall.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Ukraine is currently in talks to purchase the MQ-9 Ripper drone. However, it is highly unlikely that such drones will be sold to them.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

The capture of the entire Black Sea coast, meaning the capture of Odesa as well, is absolutely excluded. Russia will not be able to capture the Black Sea coast.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia can bomb all the way to Lviv, which it periodically does. However, Ukraine is restricted, as if to say, "You can't go there." I believe we should come to a situation, and I think we will eventually, when this restriction will be lifted. Restriction on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory using foreign weapons.
Expected
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, this will remain a mystery for many years and decades. Who blew up the Nord Streams.
Expected December 31, 2033
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Actually, it has been destroyed... This warehouse will definitely not be suitable for its intended use in the next year or two. About the recently destroyed ammunition warehouse in the Tver region.
Expected September 22, 2026
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I wouldn't expect that. Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025'
Expected December 31, 2025
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I believe that the likelihood of the war being in some sense frozen, not finished but rather frozen, in 2025 is quite high.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that such a decision will be made in the near future. Only if the practice of Russian drones or missile incursions becomes more frequent, and random civilians are killed on European territory. The answer to the question: "Will the countries bordering Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles?"
Expected January 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025?... To Sloviansk, I am sure, it definitely will not reach... I am making such cautious subjective predictions.
Expected December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en