Predictions and promises monitor

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Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Political scientist (Russia)

Predictions
11
Verified
1
Came true
100%
Complex
100%
Confident
0%
Rating
5.75

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

It is evident that, as a result of Putin's rule, there will be a strong nationalist party, with its core obviously consisting of veterans of this war. Following Putin's rule, a significant nationalist party will emerge in Russia, founded on veterans of the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I think "New People" is an entirely stillborn party, of no interest to anyone except the people who are part of it. It’s an utterly empty structure without ideology, without meaning, without charismatic leaders, and it will die along with the entire Putin political system, and no one will remember it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I believe that Putin's death will either immediately end the war or the war will come to an end... I think that Putin's death will lead to a situation where, over a certain period of time, the situation on the fronts will begin to change, and the new leadership of Russia will start looking for ways to end the war as quickly as possible in order to begin the division of power.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I don’t think the West will engage in a direct war with Russia. They’ll avoid it at all costs… There won’t be any direct NATO-Russia war. That could only happen if Russia, if Putin loses his mind and strikes first.
Expected
#Russia #NATO #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Putin can only end up in The Hague if he is overthrown as a result of a coup. And these people who overthrow him might decide for some reason that they need to improve relations with the West and blame everything on Putin. So, they might say, "Let's send him to The Hague, let them judge him there, and we will reconcile with the West". This is a very unlikely scenario.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I don't think so... As we know, the European Union does not favor countries with territorial issues... Europe prefers to have clear borders. Answer to the question: 'Kosovo is applying to the EU. Will they be accepted?
Expected
#Kosovo #European Union
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

There are no elections in the near future in Russia in which the opposition could participate as a united bloc, and there will be none in the coming years.
Expected December 31, 2028
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
Expected September 19, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

If we summarize the situation on the front lines, there will only be bad news in the near future... Unfortunately, everything is unfolding according to a negative scenario. In the near future, news from the front lines of the war in Ukraine will be unfavorable for Ukraine's supporters.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en