Predictions and promises monitor

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Michael Nacke

Blogger (Russia)

Predictions
39
Verified
12
Came true
50%
Complex
50%
Confident
42%
Rating
5.15

Michael Nacke

The election of Donald Trump will probably inevitably lead us to World War III.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

So far, current and former military personnel have not yet joined these confrontations. But I think that moment isn’t far off. And when that happens, a real bloodbath will begin... Even if the country’s leadership changes tomorrow, Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine, and so on, there will still be bloodshed—perhaps on a smaller scale, more controlled, but it will happen nonetheless. Maybe I’m wrong, and let’s hope that’s the case.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

In short, pay attention. Kadyrov declares blood vengeance, and very strange events begin to happen in Ingushetia or with individuals connected to Ingushetia. It seems Kadyrov will continue gaining momentum because no one is stopping or restraining him... The explosion in the Caucasus is not just looming on the horizon, it feels like the situation is already starting to detonate. I think it's becoming obvious to many. Figuratively speaking: "explosion" and "detonation" refer to the intensification of tensions, not literal physical events.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

It seems to me that Ukraine will become a weapons center in Europe after winning the war. Even now, a huge number of manufacturing facilities are being opened there... As far as I understand, underground factories are being built.
Expected
#Ukraine #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I consider this policy to be misguided. I believe that America misunderstands its own security. I think that the 2,500 Abrams tanks standing in the desert, which are idle, can simply be handed over to Ukraine without any thought, because this is the last war in which such tanks are used. If tanks are to be used further, they will be a completely different design, a completely different weaponry.
Expected
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Just the entire North of Israel is being shelled by Hezbollah from Lebanon... And many said that this operation is inevitable. And apparently, it really will happen. Israel's operation in Lebanon.
Expected
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Most likely, as soon as Leonid Nevzlin appears on European territory, where he used to love to travel, he will be arrested.
Expected
#Europe #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

My position has not changed since 2022. The moment NATO says that we are taking Ukraine and we are entering this conflict right now, closing the sky and so on, Russia will retreat, right at that moment, because Vladimir Putin always retreats before a force he considers greater than himself... Russia will not fight NATO now, because the forces are not comparable. Russia will be wiped out in an instant... As soon as NATO says that we are truly getting involved, Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine within a day
Expected
#Russia #NATO #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

The passivity of Russians... I wouldn't expect that when the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter the territory of Crimea, everyone will take up arms and start fighting
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

...there isn't even the death penalty. They are currently discussing lifting the moratorium on it in Russia. I don't think they will do it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I am ready to bet money, or anything, that we will not see Leonid Nevzlin outside of Israel in the coming years.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Nabiullina will likely be imprisoned soon, in my view.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

We've seen, and are still seeing, a lot of discussion about U.S. aid under the PDA, where roughly $5.8 billion is supposedly frozen and will expire in October, blah blah blah. In reality, it won’t expire—everything will be extended, mark my words, screenshot this tweet. PDA = Presidential Drawdown Authority
Expected December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Remember the joy of the Z-channels from the strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Very soon, it will be replaced by outrage and wailing from the strikes of ATACMS on Russian airfields. Today's shelling has brought this decision closer, with or without the approval of the United States.
Expected December 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

As far as I understand, the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to hold the Kursk region until the start of the negotiation process, which, as it seems to me, will begin in November after the American elections, regardless of their outcome. It is a very bold assumption on my part, and I am not ready to insist on it as some kind of forecast.
Expected November 30, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Spoiler: The Sarmat will not be put into service in 2023
Expected December 31, 2023
#Russia
ru → en