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Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Bank defaults will not be allowed. In Russia, in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

My prediction was that the war would not end this year. I still hold the same opinion.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think that next year the war will end with some kind of temporary ceasefire, approximately along the current lines. The West is unlikely to be able to maintain such intense support for another year. Of course, this reflects very poorly on the West.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely.
#USA #China

If nothing extraordinary happens, like a new mobilization, the year 2025 will pass quite calmly... I definitely do not foresee any failures, crises, or the dollar at 200 rubles.
#Russia

I think Mr. Mamdani will win, and this will further strengthen the far-left camp in the Democratic Party. In the 2025 New York City mayoral election
#USA #Elections