Predictions and promises monitor

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Garry Kasparov

World Chess Champion, politician (Russia, USA)

Predictions
17
Verified
6
Came true
83%
Complex
67%
Confident
50%
6.32

Garry Kasparov

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

Xi Jinping fully understands that if he miraculously manages to seize Taiwan, then within a few months Japan will become a nuclear power, and so will South Korea.
Expected
#Japan #Taiwan #China #South Korea
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

This war will end with Ukraine’s victory. It may not happen in five months, as we had hoped—perhaps in five years—but ultimately, the war will end with the restoration of Ukraine’s borders as they were in 1991.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

I don't really believe in the scenario of total disintegration. About Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

I think that in the next 10 years, the state of Russia within its current borders will not exist; I have no doubt about that.
Expected July 5, 2035
#Russia
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

You can criticize Spain’s prime minister all you want for refusing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. He did the right thing—he has elections coming up. How do you justify telling him to spend 5% instead of 2%? Who’s going to attack him—Algeria or Portugal? His own election is looming, and he’s almost certain to lose.
Expected December 30, 2025
#Spain
ru → en