Predictions and promises monitor

| About

Michael Sheitelman

Political technologist, blogger (Israel, Ukraine)

Predictions
52
Verified
17
Came true
71%
Complex
59%
Confident
29%
5.98

Michael Sheitelman

What is the likelihood of a civilian plane being shot down because airports are not permanently closed? It took three years for the first civilian plane to be shot down. The next one will take much less time. Within a year, the next one will be shot down by the Russians.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It draws the attention of European officials, which is something Georgia really needs right now. America is likely to lean toward not recognizing the election results. In Georgia.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Georgia #USA #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Admit Ukraine into NATO without the occupied territories. This is about some sort of compromise that Ukraine, Russia, and NATO would need to sign. What is this compromise? … The military actions would stop along the current front line. After that, all of the territory controlled by Ukraine at this moment would be admitted into NATO. What is being proposed in this deal, which doesn’t yet exist? The proposal is this: you sign something like that with Russia, we’ll flood you with money, you’ll start building a prosperous Ukraine, join the European Union, and receive massive investments… in 20 years, Russia will collapse, and you’ll get your territory back. I believe none of this will work. A year from now, we’ll look back at all of this as something that didn’t happen.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #NATO
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
Expected December 5, 2025
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected July 15, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I think it will come to a victim anyway. The Russians will definitely do it. I don't know who exactly they will eliminate. I mean European leaders; I'm not joking. They will eliminate one of them.
Expected February 2, 2025
#Russia #European Union
ru → en