Predictions and promises monitor

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Dmitry Oreshkin

PhD in Geography, political scientist (Russia)

Predictions
14
Verified
4
Came true
75%
Complex
0%
Confident
25%
Rating
5.5

Dmitry Oreshkin

Of course not. If it becomes absolutely critical, he may be forced to proceed. But mobilization is the last thing he would do. In response to the question: "He (Putin) won’t go for mobilization?"
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

In my view, her chances of getting elected are slim; in Putin's Russia, they are practically zero. Even in a post-Putin Russia, her chances won't be much higher, to be honest. On Yulia Navalny's chances of being elected president in a post-Putin Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

I think that "The Wonderful Russia of the Future" is a fairy tale that will not come true. It is possible that there will someday be a democratic regime in Russia. But then it will be a completely different Russia, and most likely not in the size of 17 million square kilometers. He means that there will either be no normal democratic regime in Russia, or if there is one, it will be in a territory smaller than the current size of Russia (hinting at the possible separation of some regions).
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

And since Ukraine will eventually get more long-range missiles—either the West will allow it, or Ukraine will develop them on its own using Western technology, as Yuzhmash is a powerful scientific and industrial complex that knows how to build missiles—they will build these long-range missiles themselves. And we, meaning Russia, will be on the receiving end. There's no avoiding that.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Reaching the banks of the Dnieper, and especially capturing the right bank of the Dnieper with Kherson and Mykolaiv, is obviously an unrealistic possibility. The most he can do is take Pokrovsk. He lacks the resources for anything more. Referring to Putin and the Russian troops.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

I’ll allow myself to express an unpopular opinion: a realistic assessment of the situation suggests that it’s unlikely Ukraine will be able to push the Russian occupiers back to the 1991 borders.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Putin cannot leave. "Only in white slippers, or with the help of a snuffbox". Putin will not leave power voluntarily.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Finland and the Finnish government will never, at least in the near and medium-term future, agree to host nuclear weapons on their territory.
Expected December 31, 2033
#Finland #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en