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The way he’s proposing to fly to Mars is impossible because of cosmic radiation, and no human will make it to Mars. They just won’t make it—they’ll die; everyone will die from the cosmic radiation.
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Deploying weapons in space, creating manned and unmanned space bases, and so on. Putting weapons into space is inevitable, unavoidable. This isn’t a science fiction novel; this is real life on Earth.
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China wants to land on the Moon by 2030 and start developing it, as we discussed before. They’ll be extracting resources from the Moon and everything else. And you’ll see—this will be 100% certain.
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These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
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The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
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It won't take Elon Musk several decades for this... So by around 2030, he will probably say: "Well, now buy your tickets, the rocket has become reliable, some to the Moon, some to Mars." By around 2030, it should be possible to fly to the Moon and Mars on Elon Musk's rockets.
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And now a new trend has emerged. They have started talking about space. About possible wars in space. I believe this is inevitable in the next 10-15 years.
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I believe we will find life on Mars... This will happen in the coming years, I am sure.
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2029 Response to the question "What's your guess" (about when people will first arrive on Mars)
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