Michael Nacke
Blogger (Russia)
Michael Nacke
ru → en
I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans
Did not come true October 3, 2025Michael Nacke
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This will have quite a few different consequences, and one of them we are seeing now in the rise of oil prices. But this is a hysterical market reaction — I don't think it will last long. I believe oil will go down fairly quickly (Due to Israel’s strike on Iran, oil prices have risen, but they will go down soon)
Completely came true August 13, 2025Michael Nacke
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Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon
Did not come true June 30, 2025Michael Nacke
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Zelensky said he would personally come to Istanbul and wait there for Vladimir Putin. A strong move. Putin definitely won’t go there
Completely came true May 15, 2025Michael Nacke
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Scholz is done; there’s no Scholz anymore—he’s ruined everything. He won’t be in the next government. There will be early elections now. We will never hear his name again
Completely came true February 24, 2025Michael Nacke
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We've seen, and are still seeing, a lot of discussion about U.S. aid under the PDA, where roughly $5.8 billion is supposedly frozen and will expire in October, blah blah blah. In reality, it won’t expire—everything will be extended, mark my words, screenshot this tweet (PDA = Presidential Drawdown Authority)
Did not come true January 31, 2025Michael Nacke
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...there isn't even the death penalty. They are currently discussing lifting the moratorium on it in Russia. I don't think they will do it
Completely came true December 31, 2024Michael Nacke
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I do not for a second entertain the thought that Russia has any chance of taking Pokrovsk by the end of this year
Completely came true December 31, 2024Michael Nacke
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As far as I understand, the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to hold the Kursk region until the start of the negotiation process, which, as it seems to me, will begin in November after the American elections, regardless of their outcome. It is a very bold assumption on my part, and I am not ready to insist on it as some kind of forecast
Did not come true November 30, 2024Michael Nacke
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Remember the joy of the Z-channels from the strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Very soon, it will be replaced by outrage and wailing from the strikes of ATACMS on Russian airfields. Today's shelling has brought this decision closer, with or without the approval of the United States
Completely came true November 26, 2024Michael Nacke
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I no longer see a scenario in which Trump wins
Did not come true November 6, 2024Michael Nacke
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If the Ukrainian army really remains in the Kursk region and expands its presence, the Russian army will not be able to take Pokrovsk, and Donald Trump will lose. I think that in November, at the end of November, or at the beginning of December, there will be mobilization in Russia
Unverifiable November 6, 2024Michael Nacke
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I have a feeling that before November, we’ll see something interesting from Ukraine. I don’t want to speculate too much; I’m not really into sharing vibes. I don’t think vibe-based analysis holds much value. Analysis should be based on arguments and facts, not vibes... I expect some offensive actions from Ukraine before November of this year. And the F-16s will surely be able to support these actions
Did not come true October 31, 2024Michael Nacke
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As for the Kursk region, I expect an intensification of fighting there in October, because it's clear that Russia would want to push out Ukrainian forces, especially by November
Almost came true October 31, 2024Michael Nacke
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The advisor to the acting governor of the Kursk region has urged all residents of Rylsk to evacuate. He predicts that this city will face the same fate as Sudzha. This means that a breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not far off
Did not come true October 23, 2024Michael Nacke
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Just the entire North of Israel is being shelled by Hezbollah from Lebanon... And many said that this operation is inevitable. And apparently, it really will happen (Israel's operation in Lebanon)
Completely came true September 27, 2024Michael Nacke
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The so-called 'bangs' are occurring in Voronezh, Belgorod, and many other regions. And apparently, there will be more of this
Completely came true August 15, 2024Michael Nacke
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Because the Crimean Bridge was recently fully repaired. And this means that in the very near future, new strikes will be carried out on it, which will render it inoperable for cargo transport
Did not come true July 31, 2024Michael Nacke
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It's hard for me to imagine (That Russia will leave the northern part of the Luhansk region in exchange for the launch of the ammonia pipeline)
Unverifiable June 30, 2024Michael Nacke
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Everything will be fine there. They will join. They will all come to an agreement (Sweden will join NATO)
Completely came true March 7, 2024Michael Nacke
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Boris Nadezhdin will certainly be denied (He will not be allowed to participate in the presidential elections of Russia)
Completely came true February 21, 2024Michael Nacke
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The war will end next year
Did not come true December 31, 2023Michael Nacke
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And I bet they won't block it (Russian troops will allow passage for grain exports)
Completely came true October 31, 2023Michael Nacke
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Spoiler: The Sarmat will not be put into service in 2023
Did not come true September 1, 2023Michael Nacke
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In my feeling, YouTube has about a day or two left... they will completely shut it down for all of us (In Russia)
Did not come true December 31, 2022Michael Nacke
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With a high probability, it will be openly carried out in one form or another. I hope I'm wrong (About mobilization in Russia)
Completely came true September 21, 2022