Mark Feygin
Lawyer, blogger (Russia)
Mark Feygin
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On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything (If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised)
Awaiting results April 30, 2025Mark Feygin
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For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal
Awaiting results May 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action
Awaiting results May 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this (There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons)
Awaiting results June 30, 2025Mark Feygin
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I really think Whitkoff's visit will be pointless and accomplish nothing; they won't agree on anything (Steve Whitkoff's visit to Russia in early August)
Awaiting results August 15, 2025Mark Feygin
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Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction
Awaiting results September 30, 2025Mark Feygin
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My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that
Awaiting results October 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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I don't think what's happening in Istanbul can be considered a step towards peace in any way. As for a high-level meeting, it won't happen in the format proposed by Ukraine (Russia won't agree to Ukraine's proposal for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin)
Awaiting results November 24, 2025Mark Feygin
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He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so (Trump)
Awaiting results December 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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Ukraine will not lose the war in 2025. From a military standpoint, it will not be defeated
Awaiting results December 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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My very cautious forecast is that they will not occupy the Donetsk region up to its administrative borders this year—they won't (They = Russia)
Awaiting results December 31, 2025Mark Feygin
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The Israeli army has withdrawn... My cautious prediction is that the war will continue. Because Hamas certainly won't voluntarily lay down its weapons. Because that would mean losing power in the Gaza Strip
Awaiting results January 16, 2026Mark Feygin
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Will he be removed from this list of foreign agents or not? My prediction is that it definitely won't happen quickly—not in a month, not in a year (Speaking about Sergei Markov)
Awaiting results August 25, 2026Mark Feygin
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Absolutely, and, of course, the Tomahawks will appear. That's my prediction (The US will transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine))
Awaiting results October 13, 2026Mark Feygin
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There will be midterm elections there in November 2026. My cautious prediction is that the Republican Party will lose them
Awaiting results November 4, 2026Mark Feygin
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There won't be a long, protracted war with Moscow... Everything will be resolved in the coming years. I'm not saying one year; I'm saying years—one, two, three. It will be settled soon, not in some long, drawn-out conflict on a distant horizon (The war in Ukraine will not last for decades and will be resolved in the next few years, within one to three years)
Awaiting results December 31, 2027Mark Feygin
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I still think that in this situation, the composition of the administration will gradually change. As we’ve discussed, some people will drop out. In their place will come increasingly polished, proper, predictable, non-confrontational Republicans — from among senators and congressmen. I think the eccentricity will gradually, step by step — not immediately — be done away with (Talking about the U.S. presidential administration)
Awaiting results December 31, 2028Mark Feygin
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All he can do, at some point — and we will see this — is say that Ukraine needs to agree to the terms proposed by Moscow. Not all of them, but it must agree to the four regions. This will come up in one form or another. If you want to stop the bloodshed, if you don’t want retaliatory strikes like what happened on June 1st, you have to go, you have to swallow your pride and give up those four regions. That’s roughly the kind of message we’ll hear. This is the last line Trump will cross, I think (Trump, in one form or another, will propose that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in favor of Russia)
Awaiting results December 31, 2028Mark Feygin
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I think, my prediction is that this issue will somehow be resolved. After all, the American establishment, which is absolutely not inclined to take responsibility for any new territories—whether it's the 51st state, Canada, or Greenland—will manage to convince Trump that such actions are entirely unnecessary at the moment. After all, Trump doesn’t make this decision alone. By the way, to annex new territories, all states would need to vote in favor. You can’t just annex territories to America like that
Awaiting results December 31, 2029Mark Feygin
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As for Trump's statements about his peacekeeping and humanitarian mission, when he says that not only will we not start wars ourselves, but we will also end others— the one who does not participate in the war is the one who wins. This will not work for Trump, this will not work for Trump. He will not be able to end wars or avoid starting them during his four-year term
Awaiting results December 31, 2029Mark Feygin
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No, they definitely won’t go for it (In response to the remark: "Turkey’s leader Erdoğan is trying to take advantage of the moment, saying that the EU cannot solve security problems without him, so Turkey must urgently be admitted to the European Union. I hope the EU won’t take such a risky step.")
Awaiting results December 31, 2029Mark Feygin
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Trump won’t stay on in four years, no matter what anyone says about a third term or a swap with Vance. I don’t believe in that — I think there’s absolutely no chance
Awaiting results December 31, 2029Mark Feygin
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I believe that Vance won't last, either. And Vance has no chance of replacing Trump as president of the United States
Awaiting results December 31, 2029Mark Feygin
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By 2045, yes, Russia will collapse about 10 times before that point
Awaiting results December 31, 2045Mark Feygin
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Putin won’t live until 2045, believe me
Awaiting results December 31, 2045Mark Feygin
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I don't see any prospects for him in his new role. I don't see any political quality (Arestovich has no prospects in politics)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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She will never be a foreign agent (Ksenia Sobchak)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In the end, they will certainly ban YouTube (In Russia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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If such incredible steps were taken to admit Ukraine into NATO, the war would likely end much sooner rather than escalate to a new level (If Ukraine is accepted into NATO, the war will end, not intensify)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I believe with a high degree of certainty that Durov will grant access to Telegram. While in custody, Durov will agree to cooperate with the French law enforcement system, and let's be frank, with the French means with the American and all the others
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Of course (A response to the remark that China will not develop production in Russia, such as car factories)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Just like Hezbollah (They won’t get drawn into the war)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In my opinion, everything will come to a breaking point, and at the last moment, he will not press it (Putin will not press the 'red button' to launch nuclear weapons)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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And my prediction is that Hungary will bend; it will concede. It will not leave either the European Union or NATO (On Hungary's pro-Putin behavior, that it is more beneficial for them to remain in the EU than to continue supporting Putin)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Most likely, Mongolia will be withdrawn from the International Criminal Court. I think this will happen, perhaps not all at once... and most likely, Mongolia will be excluded from the Rome Statute
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Clearly, but it is unlikely that he will get it (Ryabkov is clearly aiming for Lavrov's position)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In my opinion, it is unlikely that a forceful scenario can be avoided... The issue of Moldova will be resolved by force. I do not see a possibility for Moscow to voluntarily withdraw its contingent back to Russia... that is out of the question (Referring to Transnistria)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Attempting to assassinate Donald Trump is an outrageous thing... they have arrested the shooter... it is clear that he will face severe responsibility, he will be convicted and, apparently, given a very long sentence
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I predict that, in the end, Putin will step in as an arbitrator and somehow divide this business between the disputing parties (Wildberries)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In this business, once everything is divided up, there won’t be any Bakalchuks left—that’s obvious too (Referring to Wildberries)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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But still, it seems more realistic to me that, when considering the context of a nuclear response or an attempt at nuclear blackmail, it is more likely that they will conduct nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya... This is more likely. Why? Because the level of control over the situation there is much higher. This will have an effect on the West. None on Ukraine
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Moscow does not want to participate in any peace summits and will not participate in the second summit; it will not participate, even as an observer. It will not participate
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no (Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In Tajikistan, there will be a dynastic system. It will repeat what happened in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I'm confident, and I predict that Putin will intervene and resolve the issue, and everything will collapse in an instant. We'll see a smiling Kerimov and Kadyrov, wearing expensive sunglasses, hugging and kissing, saying, "That's it, we've agreed, everything is fine. We get 30 percent, he gets 70 percent. We're respectable people."
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it (If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I don’t believe in any organized protest, for the simple reason that I don’t see any political forces capable of it. There used to be, but not anymore... That’s why I don’t believe in any mass and organized protest now, under the conditions of war (Ukraine will not face major internal protests or political destabilization during the current war)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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There will not be any kind of super-massive strike (Regarding the threats from Russia to strike at decision-making centers of Ukraine)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Iran will soon get this bomb with the help of North Korea and Moscow. I think they will acquire nuclear weapons unless Israel carries out preemptive strikes
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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The war with Ukraine will ultimately lead to Russia having no European borders without NATO countries; we will gradually see Georgia and Moldova in NATO, and we will also see Ukraine
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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By the way, I am convinced that they will join NATO... ultimately, this will come to pass (Serbia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In my opinion, the Russian troops will not leave the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (On their own)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes (Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Deploying weapons in space, creating manned and unmanned space bases, and so on. Putting weapons into space is inevitable, unavoidable. This isn’t a science fiction novel; this is real life on Earth
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Now there are no chances left; he can't die on his own now (About Putin)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Undoubtedly, the CSTO will fall apart
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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As if there was never such a president as Nazarbayev. Tokayev will also be removed someday; do you think such a fate does not await him? It does
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I predict that most likely troops will be deployed on the territory of Ukraine... by NATO countries (If Russia uses nuclear weapons)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this (Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Only if Moscow itself initiates it... NATO will avoid it until the last moment (Answering the question: "What percentage do you give that a war between NATO and Russia is possible?" The prediction is interpreted in such a way that NATO will not attack Moscow first, only in response to Russia's actions)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I think this is unlikely (Regarding Russia attacking airports in Poland)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Missiles will fly. Want me to make a prediction? Sooner or later, they will fly to Moscow. To Moscow, just like they are flying to Kyiv now
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I think that most likely yes, this will happen, in my opinion. It's hard to say how quickly (Regarding the lifting of the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Hardly any missile will actually reach the U.S. The truth is that Aegis, THAAD, and similar systems will intercept 95-97% of the strategic missiles heading toward the U.S. The U.S. knows this, and Moscow knows it too
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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No, he definitely will not shoot himself (Putin)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Even before the war, I believed that Putin's regime... the power in Russia would not change as a result of elections or peaceful protests
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Independently, as a force, the military will not come to power (In Russia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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By the way, I do not believe in it; it will never happen (Regarding General nuclear disarmament worldwide)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I think humanity will most likely go down this path (Regarding the creation of a new organization instead of the UN, which will include not all countries of the world, but those that share certain Western values)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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He is not facing the dock. Most likely, he will be killed... if Moscow loses the war... he will be killed (Lukashenko)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Firstly, we don’t know what kind of power will ultimately take shape... but the kind of ally Moscow once had will no longer exist, and there will no longer be any Russian military base in Syria. Russia’s presence in the Middle East will definitively come to an end
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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He will return, I am sure (Ivan Urgant will return to Russia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I tend to think that they will ultimately imprison him (About Yevgeny Roizman)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Austria will definitely join NATO as a result of the war
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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My prediction: sooner or later, they will do it. The question is whether it's sooner or later. This is my prediction. It will happen (Europe will eventually decide to deploy troops to Ukraine)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions (Sanctions against Russia)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies (In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?")
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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If peacekeepers are deployed, then a no-fly zone over Ukraine will definitely follow... They will at the very least protect the areas where the peacekeeping contingent is stationed. That’s for sure
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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They are excluded. There will be no exchange of nuclear strikes. Precisely because these are nuclear strikes — they leave no chances. This is deterrent weaponry (Answer to the question: "Do you think nuclear strikes are possible between India and Pakistan?")
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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He wants some kind of comeback that will never happen (Medvedev will not become president of Russia again)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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The paradox of Navalny is that they killed him now, but his role and significance lie in the future. Squares will be named after him, cities will be named in honor of Alexei Navalny. That will inevitably happen
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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If Kadyrov does die, for example from illness or something else, my prediction is that none of Kadyrov’s successors will stay in power — neither Delimkhanov nor Daudov will remain presidents of Chechnya, that won’t happen, and his son won’t stay either
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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In the end, Ukraine — this is my prediction, and I may be wrong — I believe it will change its non-nuclear status. That’s my forecast, a long-term prediction. Because there’s no other way out
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Yes, it will be independent, of course, yes (In response to the statement: "The Chechen Republic will be independent.")
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I think this is the next step. Lithuania will get nuclear weapons
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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So, Mikheil Saakashvili, by being in prison... this plays the important role that there are absolutely no doubts about who is in power in Georgia. I know that efforts, both through negotiations and other means, are being made and are continuing for his release, but my prediction is that they will not release him
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Look at Venezuela, it's been thrown into the mix. Nothing will happen... because to do that, one would have to enter into a real, prolonged conflict with an unpredictable outcome. And he's geared for perpetual victory, Trump is
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Do you believe that Narendra Modi will give up buying Russian oil? No, he won't. Trump will be the one to meet him halfway
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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China can afford any megaprojects... I'd cautiously predict that the Chinese will reach the moon first
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Here we see Markaryan, who spoke out against the war... He'll go to prison; they'll put him there
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Trump will definitely not impose anything against China (Sanctions)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Ukraine, having endured these 8 months of hell, will never be demilitarized; that will never happen
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Moscow will also prepare for an offensive. And most likely, with a high degree of probability, it will be in the north (The north of Ukraine)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I believe that they will reach the point of confiscating frozen assets. I think this will happen in both Europe and America as well... I believe that large-scale confiscations may begin by the start of next year (Frozen Russian assets)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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First of all, there will be no Marshall Plan for Russia... don't harbor any illusions
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I personally believe that Crimea can only be liberated by military means
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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Kupyansk will not be taken by Russian troops. It will not be taken
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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This will never happen... they will not agree to anything of that sort (About the possibility of deploying UN peacekeepers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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No, no, no... they cannot agree to that (Moscow will not agree to the proposal for a special status for Crimea)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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All the recent structures that connected countries, like the CIS... all of this will fall apart (CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States)
Awaiting resultsMark Feygin
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I think negotiations are underway regarding the hostages... I believe that this will not be successful. Hamas will not release these people. They will not release them
Awaiting results