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I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April (This is about the ruble)

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025

They won't be able to keep the budget deficit under 7-8 trillion, and they won't succeed. They will have so many expenses in December. And they will probably proceed as follows: they will finance part of the expenses not on December 30th, but on January 12th or some other day, and that will give them a breather... And this is the first dangerous game that will undermine the budget, because already in the first quarter, when they start calculating, they will show such a deficit that everyone will be shocked... They will certainly do this; I can practically bet on it (In Russia)

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe (An economic catastrophe)

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it

I think Turkey will stop buying Russian oil altogether

I'm confident the next step will be a ban on artificial intelligence. A ban on everything that, according to Putin, responds to your queries incorrectly

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine

If the people of Europe want to live under Putin’s heel, under the heel of this darkness, this fascism, then fine, they can rejoice over cheap gas. But if Europe doesn’t want to live in a prison, in a GULAG, and wants to maintain its independence, then rejecting Russian gas is the only way forward. I have no doubt that sooner or later, Europe will realize this and will block all paths of Russian gas influence over itself

Russia is not ready for total war. No matter how much Z-supporters demand total mobilization from Putin and the conversion of industry to a war footing, it will never happen