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I am 100% sure that Russia will deliberately provoke European countries with these seemingly accidental incursions. It won't be every week, but once a month or once every two months, hypothetically. I doubt one will be shot down eventually; as long as it flies on a tangent—just cutting the corner—they won't shoot it down. If they fly deep inside, then that's a different matter (In response to the question: "How likely is it that Russia will also troll the Europeans with its planes? And how likely is it that sooner or later one of these planes will be shot down?")