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Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S (Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed)

Given that OPEC+ isn’t planning to cut production — in fact, they’re planning to increase it — the pressure is downward. I don’t think it will bounce back to the level it was at under the Trump presidency, no (In response to the question: "I understand that it’s impossible to predict oil prices, but still — what trend would you point to right now?")