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I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil (Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill)

No, they won’t close it… There is the concept of freedom of navigation. What could happen are sanctions against these tankers (Response to the question: "Will the sea be closed for Russian tankers?" (speaking about the Baltic Sea))

Until January 20, I can predict that Pokrovsk will not be captured. Although this will be a significant problem for Putin

The process around F-16s and Mirage jets is going great. It looks like by 2025, we will have enough aviation to make Russia forget about achieving air superiority or entering our airspace with their aircraft. That will no longer be an option. However, for now, we cannot neutralize the threat of KABs