screenshot

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top (The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue)

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions (In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia))

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year (In Russia)

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good

The year 2025 is critical. If Russia does not cease active military operations this year, the total collapse of its economy will begin

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves (By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance)

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double

It's clear that by the end of the year, the deficit will be 8 trillion. 6-7-8 – roughly that order (Referring to Russia's budget deficit)

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid

I am waiting for a review of the property tax system (In Russia)

I think it will continue. My terrible prediction—God forbid it comes true, I wish death on no one. But unfortunately, there's reason to believe it will, because there's a huge process of capital outflow from Russia (Responding to the comment: 'People who knew too much are unexpectedly passing away. It's not just about the minister. There's Transneft, and even before that, in 2022, there was a whole series of such incidents' (Referring to a series of strange deaths among Russian officials and oil executives))

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years

The population of Russia will decrease by about half by the end of the century. I don’t think the situation in Ukraine and Belarus will be significantly better

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble...
I think a two-step plan will be played out:
1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth);
2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion).

As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble

The situation with the real estate market is quite frightening. We are likely facing a drop in prices here

There will be wars... As I’ve already mentioned, since we’re not seeing any technological progress, it means we’re at the lower part of the so-called Kondratiev curve, the Kondratiev cycle. And in this phase, wars always increase. There’s no point in developing the economy, no economic gains, and frustrated nations start fighting each other out of anger and hopelessness. So we are in a period where, unfortunately, I have to tell you, the number of wars will only keep growing

I don’t think that even after Putin’s physical death there will be any fundamental transformation of the regime in Russia. No, it won’t happen. Similar kinds of people will take over

Creating scientific potential and establishing strong universities is an extremely costly endeavor. Because of this, the Global South will never dominate in technology. It will always be purchasing technology... The world is now divided into the Global North, which generates technology and reaps significant profits from it, and the Global South, which consumes this technology and pays for its use, as it cannot produce equivalents itself

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia (On the relationship between Trump and Putin)