There will most likely be a second round. And in the second round, Erdogan will win

April 26, 2023 ^{ru → en}

Completely came true May 30, 2023

Notes and references
1) Kurbanova LIVE https://youtu.be/qjotkjlJ0Zc?t=3050

Params: completely came true (+7), regular (+0), confident (+1)
Final rating 8