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Predictions and promises monitor | ru | en

Ranking Predictions Authors

Vitaly Portnikov

ru → en

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner (The war in the Middle East will end before 2028)

Awaiting results November 1, 2028

Notes and references
1) Yevgeny Kiselyov https://youtu.be/buQ7_Pkgp8A?t=1490

Params: awaiting results, complex, careful