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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
323
Predictions
1919
Verified
662
Came true
66%
Complex
52%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Fishman

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Shchiglik

As for Crimea, well, we shouldn’t forget about it, but during our lifetime, it’s not going anywhere from Russia—that’s clear.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Shchiglik

Europe, as a civilization of white people, is leaving the stage. Very soon—maybe not in my generation, but in yours—you will see that white Europe, the one we are used to, will no longer exist.
Expected
#Europe
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They say that all efforts are being focused on arranging a new meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. And I think such a meeting will most likely take place.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

As a result, we will, of course, see a much lower oil price. Under Trump, following Saudi Arabia's joining of the Abraham Accords.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

And today in Germany, Chancellor Scholz is no longer really the chancellor. In 2-3 months, he’ll be gone. A lame duck.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmytro Spivak

In my opinion, the Republicans are in power now and will likely stay for the next 8-12 years.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Alexander Friedman

In the case of the German elections, everything is clear and straightforward at the moment. If there are no unforeseen events, the Christian Democrats will win, and they’ll win with a significant lead.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alfred Koch

So, in the next couple of months, we will see some very important events on the front. Significant events that could impact the course of the war in Ukraine and potentially lead to the lifting of martial law.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Alfred Koch

Pistorius will likely be the leader of the Social Democrats in this election. I don’t think it will be Scholz. After all, Pistorius is a more popular figure than Scholz.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Ezra Mor

There won’t be another Lebanon war because this is the last Lebanon war. The war between Israel and Lebanon.
Expected
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think if it happens, it will be next year. They haven’t reached Pokrovsk yet. In response to the question: "When do you think the assault on Pokrovsk will take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Igor Eidman

I think that pretty soon Trump will send Musk packing, because two narcissistic egocentrics with delusions of grandeur won’t be able to share the same space.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Yes, I agree with you. In response to: "Military actions will not stop within three months... a freeze (in the war in Ukraine) is not in store for us in the next three months."
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Peace negotiations are still years, perhaps even decades, away. Right now, it’s impossible to put peace talks on the agenda. No one—neither Ukraine nor Russia—will engage in such negotiations. The only thing that can be done now is to agree to stop killing people.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Write it down. Open it 50 years from now, and you’ll see that I was right. Ukraine will never achieve a military victory over Russia. Never. And Russia will not achieve a military victory over Ukraine. Thousands and thousands of people will die.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong. Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

The way he’s proposing to fly to Mars is impossible because of cosmic radiation, and no human will make it to Mars. They just won’t make it—they’ll die; everyone will die from the cosmic radiation.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It will remain occupied at first, but then we will definitely take it back, reclaim it, no question about it—there’s no other way. Sooner or later, Crimea will certainly be part of Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It draws the attention of European officials, which is something Georgia really needs right now. America is likely to lean toward not recognizing the election results. In Georgia.
Expected
#Georgia #USA #Elections
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think there will most likely be a call or some kind of conversation, or perhaps even a meeting... between Trump and Putin before the inauguration.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

We can say with great confidence that taxes will remain low, and the debt will increase significantly in four years. In other words, we will have a substantially larger national debt. This is an issue the next president will have to address, and it will likely be a major debate in the next election. In four years, a significant increase in the U.S. national debt is expected.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Veller

If he didn’t provide them before, he won’t provide them now. Joe Biden is unlikely to change his approach and will not give Ukraine long-range missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Biden #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Roman Goncharenko

I think there will be an attempt to reallocate funding; in other words, Trump will ask the Europeans to pay more, but I don’t think he’ll actually stop military aid. Lend-Lease is indeed an option that will be used. The Biden administration hasn’t really used this Lend-Lease mechanism—selling weapons rather than giving them. I think Trump will make use of it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

Of course, there will be no mass, multimillion deportation either. He promised it, but this is one of those promises that I’m sure Trump won’t keep, and thank God he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Alfred Koch

None. She’ll travel around giving lectures at provincial universities. In response to the question: "What future awaits Kamala Harris?"
Expected
#KamalaHarris #USA
ru → en

Elon Musk

He will be gone in the upcoming election. Response to the request: "We need your help in Canada getting rid of Trudeau"
Expected
#Canada #Elections
en

Mark Feygin

I believe that at least until the inauguration, nothing will happen. Everything will continue as it is. There will be no ceasefire in the war in Ukraine until Trump’s inauguration.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Putinism, having survived this war, will become stronger, tougher, and more aggressive toward its citizens. After the war in Ukraine ends, the Putin regime will grow stronger.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

They’re saying that Trump won, but he won’t become president—that he still has to live to see the inauguration. Trump will 100% survive until the inauguration; I don’t think there will be any issues.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Roman Svitan

Trump will work on lowering the price of oil, and he has the mechanisms to do it. I think the price of oil will definitely drop below 60 dollars—he’ll keep it somewhere around 60 to 50.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #USA #Economy
ru → en

Oleksiy Goncharenko

I think that sooner or later a warrant for Lukashenko will appear, if not for this case, then for something else. Lukashenko has done so many things that a warrant is inevitable. An ICC warrant.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ivan Kurilla

Kamala had that chance—that someone from a different generation would come in—but she couldn’t make use of it... I don’t think she has much of a political future.
Expected
#KamalaHarris #USA
ru → en